https://www.definitely-maybe.com News From The Future - Predictions based on Polymarket betting odds en-us Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:20 GMT https://www.definitely-maybe.com/icon.png https://www.definitely-maybe.com https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by 114242 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Major geopolitical action - US strike on Iran at 69% is highly uncertain and time-sensitive breaking news with massive implications | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 69% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair 35908 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Breaking finance news - Trump nominating Fed Chair is imminent, high-impact decision despite high confidence, massive volume | This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | Current probability: 95% | Category: finance finance https://polymarket.com/event/2026-nba-champion 27830 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Thunder as strong NBA championship favorite at 36% in 30-team field - dominant position, high volume sports story | This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NBA Finals. | Current probability: 64% | Category: sports sports https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028 31875 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Strong frontrunner in 128-option field at 45% - Vance emerging as clear GOP favorite is highly newsworthy political development | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | Current probability: 49% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028 31552 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT 2028 presidential race uncertain - high volume political story with no clear favorite among 128 options | The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated. | Current probability: 50% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-595 30615 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Spain as World Cup favorite at 17% in 60-nation field - major global sporting event with significant lead | This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | Current probability: 17% | Category: sports sports https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election 45915 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Lula at 52% for Brazil 2026 - coin-flip uncertainty in major Latin American election | A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | Current probability: 41% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028 30829 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Wide-open 2028 Dem nomination with no frontrunner - massive volume, genuine uncertainty in major political race | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | Current probability: 50% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027 118172 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:35 GMT Massive $28.1M volume with 89% No - high-profile geopolitical prediction | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify. | Current probability: 89% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/nba-mvp-694 32754 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:49 GMT NBA MVP race wide open at 50% across 33 options - competitive sports race with no clear leader | This is a market on predicting the winner of the NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for the 2025–26 NBA regular season. | Current probability: 50% | Category: sports sports https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026 143443 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT María Corina Machado at 12% in 57-option field - underdog with potential for major political change in Venezuela | This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive. | Current probability: 12% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027 86832 Wed, 21 Jan 2026 06:23:44 GMT Viking Therapeutics acquisition at coin-flip odds - corporate M&A uncertainty with decent volume | This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | Current probability: 48% | Category: finance finance https://polymarket.com/event/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-champion 27829 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Avalanche at 22% in 32-team Stanley Cup race - clear NHL favorite with good volume | This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NHL Stanley Cup championship. | Current probability: 59% | Category: sports sports https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi 23784 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:53 GMT Most informative non-obvious prediction at 60% - humorous comparison to long-awaited game | This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. | Current probability: 60% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-dutch-government 59404 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:59:15 GMT Dutch coalition at 91% uncertain - ongoing political situation but high confidence of continued uncertainty | The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. For example: If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”. If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No". If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands. | Current probability: 91% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027 89502 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Bitcoin WILL dip to $65K at 100% certainty - already known outcome, no uncertainty | What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027? | Current probability: 100% | Category: crypto crypto https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 90178 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:01:48 GMT Jesus Christ WON'T return at 97% - absurd non-event prediction with no real news value | This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. | Current probability: 97% | Category: culture culture https://polymarket.com/event/next-country-us-strikes-918 168624 Sat, 17 Jan 2026 10:11:10 GMT Somalia next US strike at 100% - already determined, no uncertainty remains | This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the announced/reported strike in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike. In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied: If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred. In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known. If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time. If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in. If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names. The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. RSS and transient postings: RSS entries, cached snippets, archives, or temporary/removed webpages will not alone qualify. | Current probability: 100% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/usisrael-strikes-iran-by 151953 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 61% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/megaeth-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch 28999 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:58:57 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This is a market on MegaETH FDV | Current probability: 69% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027 34050 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:42 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice. | Current probability: 61% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684 145731 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:50 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 99% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/2026-f1-drivers-champion 100371 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1. | Current probability: 30% | Category: sports sports https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 34044 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:48 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | Current probability: 90% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026 148292 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:52 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | Current probability: 83% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election 79987 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Ranked by trading volume | The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/). | Current probability: 24% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/zama-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch 84946 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:59:25 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Zama's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Zama doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". | Current probability: 89% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027 30828 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:46 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 92% | Category: culture culture https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026 91942 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. | Current probability: 56% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026 51456 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. | Current probability: 27% | Category: finance finance https://polymarket.com/event/opinion-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch 133675 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:59:20 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opinion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opinion (https://x.com/opinionlabsxyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". | Current probability: 81% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139 60182 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee. | Current probability: 11% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/nba-western-conference-champion-933 32756 Thu, 22 Jan 2026 07:14:14 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This is a market on which team will win the Western Conference Finals in the 2025–26 NBA season. | Current probability: 51% | Category: sports sports https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-747 71692 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:46 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 63% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/trove-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch 112071 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:59:27 GMT Reused headline (confidence change: 0.0%) | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Trove's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Trove doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". | Current probability: 99.95% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026 72347 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:38 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 61% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election 34584 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Ranked by trading volume | Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). | Current probability: 78% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-trumps-tariffs 41353 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:40 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 75% | Category: finance finance https://polymarket.com/event/next-country-us-strikes-632 184050 Sat, 24 Jan 2026 20:39:55 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country that is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike. In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied: If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred. In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known. If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time. If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in. If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names. The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. RSS and transient postings: RSS entries, cached snippets, archives, or temporary/removed webpages will not alone qualify. | Current probability: 100% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31 57057 Tue, 27 Jan 2026 17:26:14 GMT Ranked by trading volume | On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | Current probability: 85% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch 119671 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:59:37 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". | Current probability: 56% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 79048 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:58:57 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 91% | Category: crypto crypto https://polymarket.com/event/epstein-client-list-released-in-2025-372 84575 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 08:43:04 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities. A document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity. The following will not qualify: - Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity. - Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein. - Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 80% | Category: culture culture https://polymarket.com/event/fogo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch 91919 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:59:12 GMT Reused headline (confidence change: 0.0%) | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fogo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fogo (https://x.com/fogo/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". | Current probability: 99.95% | Category: tech tech https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-insurrection-case-prison-sentence 95127 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:01:07 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | Current probability: 95% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-828 98230 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:14:49 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used. | Current probability: 18% | Category: geopolitics geopolitics https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027 73969 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:52 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Current probability: 84% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026 32225 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:55 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results. | Current probability: 84% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/will-tim-walz-resign-by 128933 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:00:57 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | Current probability: 86% | Category: politics politics https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-world-series-champion-2026 179312 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:33:19 GMT Ranked by trading volume | This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | Current probability: 26% | Category: sports sports