Thunder as strong NBA championship favorite at 36% in 30-team field - dominant position, high volume sports story
This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NBA Finals.
Thunder as strong NBA championship favorite at 36% in 30-team field - dominant position, high volume sports story
This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NBA Finals.
President Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, a move expected to reshape monetary policy direction by the end of 2026 (95%). Meanwhile, the administration's tariff agenda faces significant legal headwinds, as the Supreme Court is expected to rule against Trump's tariff policies before December 2026 (75%). These twin developments will likely define the economic policy landscape heading into the final years of Trump's term.
Strong frontrunner in 128-option field at 45% - Vance emerging as clear GOP favorite is highly newsworthy political development
Major geopolitical action - US strike on Iran at 69% is highly uncertain and time-sensitive breaking news with massive implications
Park Chan-dae will become Incheon's next mayor in June 2026 (91%), while Chong Won-oh is set to take Seoul's top office the same month (78%). Emmanuel Grégoire is expected to win the Paris mayoral race by March 2026 (69%). Looking ahead to 2028, Democrats are slightly favored to reclaim the White House in November (55%), though the presidential field remains wide open with no clear frontrunner emerging (50%).
Wide-open 2028 Dem nomination with no frontrunner - massive volume, genuine uncertainty in major political race
Spain as World Cup favorite at 17% in 60-nation field - major global sporting event with significant lead
Avalanche at 22% in 32-team Stanley Cup race - clear NHL favorite with good volume
President Trump will remain in office through 2026, with no resignation (94%) or impeachment (87%) expected before year's end. Trump is set to visit China by April 30 (89%) and will likely meet with President Xi Jinping later in 2026 (95%). The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on Trump's tariff policies by March 31 (69%), while efforts to acquire Greenland will not materialize before 2027 (89%).
Viking Therapeutics acquisition at coin-flip odds - corporate M&A uncertainty with decent volume
NBA MVP race wide open at 50% across 33 options - competitive sports race with no clear leader
María Corina Machado at 12% in 57-option field - underdog with potential for major political change in Venezuela
Dutch coalition at 91% uncertain - ongoing political situation but high confidence of continued uncertainty
Most informative non-obvious prediction at 60% - humorous comparison to long-awaited game
Bitcoin WILL dip to $65K at 100% certainty - already known outcome, no uncertainty
Somalia next US strike at 100% - already determined, no uncertainty remains
Jesus Christ WON'T return at 97% - absurd non-event prediction with no real news value
The fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire will collapse by June 2026 (67%), setting the stage for renewed hostilities in the region. Iran is expected to strike Israel before December 2026 (72%), while the United States will likely launch strikes against Iranian targets before Israel does (62%). Through February 2026, direct strikes on Tehran remain unlikely (80%), but military action by either the US or Israel is expected by March 2026 (61%).
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will persist without a ceasefire through at least the first half of 2026, with no diplomatic breakthrough expected by February 28 (99%) or March 31 (97%). Fighting is likely to continue through June 2026 (81%), with the war expected to extend through year-end without a formal ceasefire (61%). Ukraine will likely maintain its territorial stance, refusing to cede land to Russia before 2027 (72%).
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Germany's CDU will sweep Baden-Württemberg on March 8th (93%) and is expected to take Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22nd (75%), signaling a conservative resurgence ahead of federal politics. In South America, Colombia's PH Party will likely secure the most Senate seats on March 8th (86%), while Slovenia's Democratic Party is poised to win their parliamentary election by March 31st (86%). Hungary's opposition TISZA Party is expected to unseat the ruling coalition by April 12th (63%), potentially reshaping EU dynamics.
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